Six months of 2026 are in the books on our verified live account. This is the honest review: the strong start, the two-month drawdown, and what the statistics say at the halfway mark.
Month by month
| Month | Return | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| January | +2.17% | Quiet month, few setups |
| February | +10.09% | Strongest month, yen trends ran |
| March | +7.21% | Continuation of the February regime |
| April | +1.80% | Peak reached late April |
| May | -2.54% | First losing month, failed-break cluster |
| June | -3.66% | Drawdown deepened, worst point roughly -6% from peak |
Year-to-date through June: roughly +15.3% compounded. Including the November-December 2025 start, the account stands at over +21% overall (from the $100,000 November 15 start) with a maximum drawdown under -7% at that point.
The statistics that matter more than the P&L
- Win rate: 52.8% live across 144 trades vs 57.2% in the 4,542-trade backtest. The structural match could hardly be tighter.
- Profit factor: 1.60 live, healthy and within the expected band.
- Max drawdown: -6.1% at that point, less than half the backtest maximum at equivalent risk. The May-June sequence, uncomfortable as it felt, was statistically mild.
- Rule adherence: 100%. Every trade taken by the system, zero manual interventions, zero parameter changes.
What the first half taught us
First: regimes dominate months. February-March delivered most of the half's profit because the yen trended; May-June gave part of it back because it stopped. No monthly result changed the system's expectancy, only the market's cooperation. Second: publishing the drawdown in real time (see the May and June posts) generated more early-access signups than the winning months did. Transparency, it turns out, converts better than performance. Third: patience is a feature you configure in advance. The 1% risk setting made the -6.3% drawdown survivable both financially and psychologically.
The second half
July has opened positive. The Mean Reversion System's live account remains planned for Q3, which will complete the Full System picture with live data on both engines ahead of the January 2027 marketplace launch. Everything, as always, stays published on the verified track record.
The regime story behind the monthly numbers
The half-year's shape becomes legible when you overlay the macro backdrop. January's quiet +2.22% reflected a market waiting on central bank clarity: ranges held, few setups triggered, the system correctly did little. February and March delivered the half's engine: a decisive repricing of the rate-differential outlook sent the yen pairs into sustained trends, and the breakout system did what it is built for, converting persistence into its two strongest months. April's +1.86% was the exhale: trends maturing, ranges reasserting. May and June, as documented in their own posts, were the digestion phase: rangebound yen, failed breaks clustering, the designed cost of doing business in a trend-following engine during trendless weeks. None of this narrative was predictable in advance and none of it was needed: the system requires no regime forecast, only that trending regimes recur often enough across a year, which eleven years of backtest and now this half-year of live data keep confirming. The narrative is written afterward for understanding, never before for positioning. That ordering is the entire systematic proposition.
Setting expectations for the second half, properly
The honest way to frame July through December is with base rates rather than predictions. Across the backtest's eleven second-halves, the breakout system averaged results broadly in line with first-halves, with the same wide dispersion: strong halves above +20%, flat halves near zero, and drawdown-marked halves that recovered into year-end. Nothing about the current +18.9% YTD position changes those base rates in either direction: returns do not mean-revert on the calendar, and neither does variance owe us anything for the May-June stretch. What the second half concretely adds is instrumentation: the Mean Reversion live account launching in Q3 puts real-money data behind the portfolio's second engine, which matters more for the product's evidentiary weight than any single month's return. By the January launch, the goal is simple to state: both engines live, both verified, both published through whatever months arrive, so that buyers in 2027 evaluate a track record rather than a promise. The first half funded that goal with exactly the kind of data, comfortable and uncomfortable alike, that makes it credible.